LOCOMOTION Scenarios

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Hypotheses
IdHypothesesNameSymbolNameDescr
1Economic climate change impacts uncertainty scenarioSELECT_CLIMATE_CHANGE_IMPACT_UNCERTAINTY_SCENARIO_SPHypothesis with the following options derived from statistical analysis: maximum, minimum, median and average
2Treshold EROIst for solar PV and wind potentialsSELECT_EROI_MIN_POTENTIAL_SOLAR_WIND_SPHypothesis about the threshold of EROI standard (EROIst) selected by the user for the solar PV and wind technologies potential. Those locations having an EROI below that threshold (named EROImin) are excluded from the potential.
3Climate sensitivity CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY_SPEquilibrium Climate Sensitivity hypothesis. It is the amount of global warming over hundreds of years after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. There is a high uncertainty about this parameter.
4Select RCP for setting the GHG emissions of those gases not being modelled endogenouslySELECT_RCP_FOR_EXOGENOUS_GHG_EMISSIONS_SP"Each RCP represents a level of radiative forcing (W/m2) by 2100. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. This hypothesis is used in WILIAM to drive the evolution of some dimensions which have not been fully endogenized (e.g., some GHG other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, etc.)."
5Global Warming Potential (GWP) time frameSELECT_GWP_TIME_FRAME_SP"Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the Earth by absorbing energy and slowing the rate at which the energy escapes to space. Different GHGs can have different effects on the Earth's warming. Two key ways in which these gases differ from each other are their ability to absorb energy (their ""radiative efficiency""), and how long they stay in the atmosphere (also known as their ""lifetime""). The GWP was developed to allow comparisons of the global warming impacts of different gases. Specifically, it is a measure of how much energy the emissions of 1 ton of a gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emissions of 1 ton of carbon dioxide (CO2). The larger the GWP, the more that a given gas warms the Earth compared to CO2 over that time period. The time period usually used for GWPs is 100 years, but it may be argued that a shorter time- frame could be used to assess the shorter-term effects of some gases such as CH4 which has a much higher short-term warming effect than CO2 (e.g., Howarth, R.W., Santoro, R., Ingraffea, A., 2011. Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations. Climatic Change 106, 679–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0061-5)."
6Maximum global supply curve for uraniumSELECT_URANIUM_MAXIMUM_SUPPLY_CURVE_SPUranium extraction is constrained by a global maximum supply curve which is a curve of maximum energy extraction rate as a function of time (cf. Appendix B in Capellán-Pérez, I., Mediavilla, M., de Castro, C., Carpintero, Ó., Miguel, L.J., 2014. Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach. Energy 77, 641–666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063 for details)
7Households propensity to consumeSELECT_PROPENSITY_CONSUME_SP
8Economic climate change impacts uncertainty scenarioSELECT_CLIMATE_CHANGE_IMPACT_UNCERTAINTY_SCENARIO_SPHypothesis with the following options derived from statistical analysis: maximum, minimum, median and average
9Climate hazardsSELECT_CLIMATE_HAZARDS_SPHypothesis to be able to select individually or together all climate hazards for economic impacts (heatwaves, wildfires, droughts)
10Capital costs investments energy technologiesSELECT_CAPACITY_INVESTMENT_COST_DEVELOPMENT_SPHypothesis to select cases of high, low or user-defined costs with relation to medium expected capital cost ($/MW) evolution
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